Yesterday, my wife asked me if I thought that John McCain had a legitimate chance of winning the election. I replied, "Legitimate? No."
She thought about this a bit and then asked if I though Obama was going to win. I said, honestly, "I don't know."
After another period of silent contemplation she asked, "Are you afraid McCain might win." And I replied, "Yes."
Allow me to explain below the fold.
The circle of voters with which I have the most contact and know the best consists of me, my wife, my mother and my mother-in-law. They are a diverse group and I sometimes use them to gauge how I think an election might go. Now I know that none of us has any desire to see John McCain elected to the Presidency. But of the four of us, the only one that I am certain will vote for Obama, is me.
I am a life long Liberal Democrat with a capital "LIBERAL" I have voted a straight Democratic Party ticket in every election, with the execption of 1972 when I let my father talk me into voting for Nixon in my very first presidential election. I believe his argument went somthing like this, "I'd rather have an experienced incompetent in office than an inexpereinced imcompetent." It seemed to make sense to me at the time. I haven't voted for a single Republican since, and neither did he for the rest of his life.
Next is my mother. She has voted Democrat all her life, again with the single exception of 1972. She is certain she doesn't want McCain to be president, but I am not certain she will vote for Obama because recently she made the comment, "I just don't want to see black people running the country." This came as quite a shock to me as I had never, in 55 years, heard her utter anything that could even remotely be construed as racist.
My wife likes to consider herself an independant of the "vote for the person, not the party" variety but almost always ends up voting for the Democrat anyway. Her major complaint is that she can't vote for the one person she really wants to be President. Al Gore.
My Mother-in-Law is a strange duck and doesn't really talk much about her political leanings. But she was married for a long time to a Michigan lawyer and judge. When he was a lawyer they were both Democrats, but when a Republican governor appointed him to a judgeship, they became Republicans. She continued to vote Republican even after he died 20 years ago. Until 2004 when she voted for Kerry, having become so totally disgusted with Bush&Co. I still have no idea how she voted on the down ticket races as she doesn't discuss her votes. But this time around she has made no secret of her total disgust wtih BOTH parties. She leaves the room whenever I have anything remotely political on the TV and says nasty things to both McCain and Obama tv ads. She has expressed the possibility that she may not vote at all.
So there you have it. Out of four people who I am certian will not vote FOR McCain, there is only one sure vote FOR Obama.
I will vote a straight Democratic ticket like I always do even though I am not totally in love with Obama, I do think he's an honest man and at the very least won't make things any worse.
I have no idea what my mother will do. I just know she doesn't like Obama because he's Black. I'd say there's a 50-50 chance she will either vote for Obama or not vote for President at all (but she will vote for the down ticket Dems)
My wife doesn't like Obama because he's not Al Gore. There's a 50-50 chance she may cast a write in vote for Al while again voting for the down ticket Dems.
My Mother-in-Law... IF she decides to vote it will most likely be to cast a vote AGAINST Sarah Palin. But I'd say there is only a 50-50 chance that she will vote at all.
And this is the problem. Because, in this election, it is not sufficient merely to not vote for McCain. We must convice people like these three wonderful women, whom I love dearly, that it is necessary to actually vote FOR Obama. Or he could lose.
The fewer people who choose to vote, the better it is for McCain. Our best hope lies in getting as many people to the polls and marking that ballot for Obama as is humanly possible. The best way to thwart the Republican vote counting shenannigans that are sure to happen, is to simply overwhelm them with Obama votes.
So if you have fence sitters in your circle of friends and family, make sure you let them know that this is one election where sitting on the sidelines and doing nothing is NOT AN OPTION! The ONLY way to insure that Sarah Palin doesn't end up sitting one 72 year old heartbeat away from the Oval Office is to GET OUT THERE AND VOTE FOR OBAMA!